Mastering Moneyline Betting: Expert Tips, Strategies and Trends
Mastering Moneyline Betting from A to Z
Moneyline bets are a popular form of sports betting that suits pro and new bettors alike and is one of the most common types of bets you’ll find when wagering in online sportsbooks. For all of you TL;DR readers, let’s say it this way: Moneyline betting is a simple way to wager on a game or match outcome. Unlike point spread betting, which means betting on a team to win by a margin, Moneyline betting only requires you to pick the winner of the game.
In this betPAcasinos Moneyline betting guide, we will cover everything you need to know to start your Moneyline betting experience in one of our top recommended PA sportsbooks. We will cover moneyline wagering from its basics to advanced strategies, offer some of our hard-learned pro tips and even discuss trends of this easy-to-utilize betting option. By the end of this guide, we hope you will have a thorough understanding of how Moneyline betting works and if you already understand the basics to equip you with some pro insights to make intelligent bets.
What is Moneyline Betting?
As said in the introduction – Moneyline betting is a sports betting option in which you bet on a winning team or individual player to win a game or match. When you place a Moneyline bet at every respectable bookmaker, you choose a winner based on the given odds. Odds are presented in either positive (+) or negative (-) numbers.
A positive number (+) indicates an underdog; the bigger the number, the stronger the underdog. A negative number, on the other hand, shows a favorite Team or Player. Both have a significant impact on your wager payout.
As an example, let’s say the Moneyline for an NBA game between the LA Lakers and the Phoenix Suns looks like so:
Los Angeles Lakers -250
Phoenix Suns +200
The Lakers are the favorite (-) with a -250 odd, and The Suns are the underdog (-) with a +200 odd.
Moneyline Bets Payout Vs. Profit
Following this Moneyline odds example, let’s figure out the payout for a $100 bet on each. The payout is calculated as a proportion of the stake wagered.
Profit formula: Profit = (wager / Odds) X100
Payout formula: Profit + Wager
For the LA Lakers (-250):
Profit = ($100 / -250) x 100 =
Profit = $40
Payout = $40 + $100 (Wager)
For the Phoenix Suns (+200):
Profit = ($100 / +200) x 100
Profit = $50
Payout = $50 +$100 (Wager)
As you can see, the total payout of betting $100 on the favorite odd (Lakers) will reward you with a $140 payout representing your $40 profit and your initial $100 stake return. The total payout of betting $100 on the underdog (Suns) will reward you with a $150 payout representing your $50 profit and your initial $100 stake return.
Down the Moneyline rabbit hole: implied probability explained.
A bet is always more than just a bet. Like the stock market trends indicate market fluctuations, the Moneyline odds represent the market expectation of a game outcome with the sportsbooks as the shareholders, bettors as investors, and the subject of the wager as the company. In the same way, investors and shareholders can cause a stock to fluctuate. Companies’ success or failures can influence the stock price – sports bettors and sports bookmakers can push the odds to fluctuate and change over time as more people place more bets or as teams undergo challenges and success, such as players’ injuries or an unexpected boost such as a mid-season all-star player recruitment.
While the initial odds are given by the sportsbook based on their methods to profit off commission, AKA “The vig” or “juice,” the more bets are made by bettors, the more adjustment will be made to maintain a profitable “Vig” for the bookie.
A great example of these changes can be seen in the month-to-month odds of the LVII Super Bowl contestants:
| Month | Kansas Chiefs | Philly Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| September | +1000 | +2200 |
| October | +650 | +650 |
| November | +500 | +500 |
| December | +500 | +400 |
| January | +300 | +500 |
| February | +110 | -130 |
Becoming an intelligent “investor” – Sports betting math
Before we dive into the math, it is an excellent time to address why you should calculate the implied probability. In short – while all bets are ultimately subjected to luck, knowing what to bet on and how will result in betting with more than luck and an increase of your bankroll over time. By calculating implied probability, PA sports bettors can identify the best wagering options based on sportsbooks predictions vs. their own knowledge or beliefs regarding a team or a player, decide what counts as favorable odds, and “shop” different PA sportsbooks for these odds and above all – manage the risks involved by taking informed decisions and determining the potential payout.
Implied probability in action
To calculate the implied probability of a Moneyline, we use the following formula:
For negative odds (underdog): x/(x+100)
For positive odds (favorite): 100/(x+100)
In these formulas, “x” represents the absolute value of the odds, but we are searching for percentages. If you forgot math class by now – to get a %, multiply the result by 100.
Example #1:
using the above explanation and the LA Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns example (Lakers -250 | Phoenix Suns +200), we will calculate the games implied probability:
Lakers are the favorite with -250, so we will use the negative formula:
x/(x+100) = 250/(250+100) = 0.714
0.714X100 = 71.4%
The Suns are the underdog with +200, so we will use the positive formula:
100/(x+100) = 100/(200+100) = 0.333
0.333 X 100 = 33.3%
If you were confused about why the underdog is represented by + and the favorite is represented by –, this should answer that confusion. As you can see, the favorite Lakers have a 71.4% of winning the match while the Underdog Suns have a slim chance of 33.3%. Combined, you will notice that the probability is at 104.7%. Don’t be alarmed; your calculation is correct. The extra 4.7% you see in this case is what we referred to as “”The vig” or “juice” – sportsbook commission over every bet made on the game.
Moneyline betting market and trends:
Moneyline betting is popular due to its simplicity and because sports betting is becoming more and more mainstream. As such, the gambling industry keeps finding new ways to offer it across all sports types. In Pennsylvania, bettors can utilize Moneyline betting on football, basketball, hockey, tennis, boxing, MMA, gold, and many others. In the keystone state, this type of betting is trendy in significant events such as the Super Bowl, the MLB World Series, and the NBA Finals. As more and more sportsbooks are providing online sports betting options with designated casino bonuses, it is no wonder that Moneyline betting is blowing up to new proportions in the online market. The availability of Casino apps on smartphones and tablets made Moneyline bets even more accessible to manage due to offering accurate time monitoring of odds fluctuations and easier ways for bettors to go odds shopping or even place live Moneyline bets from wherever, whenever. A PA bettor can easily find options such as BetMGM sportsbook app Moneyline bets, Caesars Palace app Moneyline bets, Unibet online Moneyline bets, and many more.
Four Beginner Tips to increase your Moneyline bets bankroll
Now that you have the foundations to place Moneyline bets, let’s review a few tips to help you utilize the bet type to boost your bankroll.
Almost all sports bet types require understanding the sport you are betting on. The more information you have on a team or player, the better your chances at sports betting are. Before placing a bet, go on a mission and educate yourself regarding recent news, injuries, draft coach changes, and all other factors that can impact the winning outcome and your Moneyline bet.
With the abundance of PA sportsbooks come a variety of odds in the same game. Instead of placing your bets at one sportsbook, visit a few others and check for the odds that suit you most. Once those are found, put our payout formula and review the implied probability of the game to figure out which one of the sportsbooks you can maximize your payout and minimize your risk.
favorites usually win the game, but a successful underdog Moneyline bets the payout. Suppose your research is solid, and you have the most updated information about a match that leads you to believe the underdog has a good chance of succeeding. In that case, you should come out victorious as well. If you haven’t – take the lesson learned and try to realize what went missing for future underdog bets. Knowledge is not only power. It is also real money when used right.
responsible gambling is the most critical tip any bettor should hold on to. Never bet more than you can afford; know when to forfeit your losses and quit. If you or any of your friends need help sticking to the budget, you should seek professional help. Not sticking to budget is one of the early signs of a gambling problem and should be addressed and diminished.
Three Pro Tips to increase your Moneyline bets bankroll
After you have already mastered Moneyline betting and understood the related formulas, ups, and downs, and are ready to take it to the next level, here are four pro tips that should help you do that:
A parlay combines two or even more bets into a single wager. Done right can significantly increase your payout but also increase the risk. Since Moneyline bets are simply choosing the winning option in a Moneyline parlay, bet all the bets must also win.
as seen in the above 6 mentioned Chiefs and Eagles 6-month odds fluctuations – odds change all the way up to game time. Following line movements can assist the sports-savvy bettor in identifying opportunities where the odds have shifted in their favor.
earlier, we calculated the implied probability of a team winning based on the odds and mentioned that bettors should be viewed as investors that influence that probability. It is vital to notice that, just like real investors, public perception of a team or player can be overinflated due to rumors and false information. Betting against that inflated perception when you have just the correct intel – can lead to big wins.
Conclusion
Moneyline betting is a simple type of betting. Anyone can easily apply the math around it when calculating basic wins or losses on a single-player or team level. The bet becomes trickier and riskier when merging bets into Moneyline parlays, but it can also increase your payout dramatically. With the tools and formulas reviewed and some research, you are equipped with the necessary info for placing a bet in any reputable Pennsylvania sportsbook.
FAQ
No, the Moneyline is a sports bet based on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread.
The favorite team odd is presented by a negative number(-), while the underdog is represented by a positive number (+).
Yes, Moneyline can be used with other sports bets, such as parlays and teasers.